Fiscal impact of gaming changes in Indiana and Ohio

Gaming Study Commitee report on the Estimates of the Fiscal Impacts from Out-of-State Casino Competition and Movement of Casino Licenses in Indiana.

This report was given to the Study Committee on October 19, 2009.  From the third page of the report:

Estimated Net Revenue Impact from Fort Wayne Casino

Beginning on page 20:

Impact of Locating a Casino in Fort Wayne: The market area estimated for a casino gaming facility in Fort Wayne is described in Map 10 below. The rose-colored counties comprise the estimated 50-mile market area for a Fort Wayne casino, with the yellow-colored counties comprising the casino’s remaining market areas. This market area contains an adult population of approximately 1.2 M. The market area outside of 50 miles is truncated to the north by Firekeepers casino, to the south by Hoosier Park casino, and to the east by Blue Chip casino and Four Winds casino. The cross-hatched area represents counties that are estimated to comprise parts of Blue Chip’s and Hoosier Park’s current market areas. Consequently, it is estimated a casino located in Fort Wayne could potentially displace significant levels of business at these existing casinos.

It is estimated that a casino operating in this market area could potentially generate $140 M to $170 M in win. This estimate assumes that: (1) the gaming participation rate in the adult population is between 25% and 30%; (2) the average casino patron in the market makes 5 to 6 trips to the casino per year; and (3) win per patron at the casino will be about $93. This estimate is also checked based on the relative performance of casinos located in various metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs), including Evansville, Indiana, and Louisville, Kentucky. It is also estimated that the win potentially displaced from Blue Chip casino could range from $23.8 M to $28.9 M, with the displaced win from Hoosier Park potentially ranging from $32.2 M to $39.1 M. Given the estimated displacement, Table 7 below reports the net additional win and net additional gaming taxes estimated for a Fort Wayne casino.

Table 7: Estimated Revenue Generated by Casino in Fort Wayne.

A gaming facility in Toledo, Ohio, could potentially compete in many of the eastern counties in the estimated market area of a Fort Wayne casino. Based on analysis of the population in these areas, it is estimated that the win from a Fort Wayne casino would decline by 17% to 18% if a Toledo gaming facility opened. This impact on the win is estimated to reduce the tax revenue impact of a Fort Wayne casino by 25% to 26%.

So a reduction would take that $30 million down town $22.8 million.  One of the things that State Representative Charlie Brown from Gary shared in the September 14th session that Gary would allow one of its current licenses to be moved with the stipulation that money be paid back to Gary for a number years.  This money, I’m thinking it was around$5 million, would go toward a new teaching hospital in that area.  I can’t seem to locate my notes, but further the payments would be made for several years.  So that could potentially bring the revenue generated down to $17 or $18 million.  Not an amount to sneeze at, but certainly a far cry from the $30 it started at.  I’d also question the estimate of the impact of a Toledo gaming facility – if that isn’t a bit low.

The report is available for download here.  You may also download audio clips and other reports, agendas and minutes for the Gaming Study Committee here.

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