The National Weather Service has issued the spring Hydrologic Outlook for the Maumee River.
Text of the outlook from the National Weather Service:
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 1120 AM EST THU FEB 24 2022 ...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE 90 DAY PROBABILISTIC FORECAST... THIS IS THE 90 DAY PROBABILISTIC FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS IN THE MAUMEE RIVER BASIN IN NORTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO AND FOR THE UPPER WABASH RIVER BASIN IN NORTHERN INDIANA. IN THE TABLE BELOW THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE TO OR ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS. FOR EXAMPLE, THE MAUMEE RIVER AT FORT WAYNE, INDIANA HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 17 FEET. IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE THE RIVER WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE 22.3 FEET. BLUFFTON, INDIANA ON THE WABASH RIVER HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 10 FEET. IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 25 PERCENT CHANCE THE RIVER WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE 12.3 FEET. CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS ...VALID MARCH 1 2022 - MAY 30 2022... MAUMEE RIVER BASIN... LOCATION FS(FT) 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% SAINT JOSEPH RIVER OHIO MONTPELIER OH 12.0 9.6 10.5 11.3 12.1 13.4 14.9 15.2 NEWVILLE IN 12.0 10.8 11.5 12.1 12.9 14.4 15.6 16.2 ST. JOE FT W. IN 12.0 5.8 7.4 8.3 11.0 14.7 20.9 23.4 SAINT MARYS RIVER DECATUR IN 17.0 12.3 13.6 15.9 17.3 19.2 21.3 22.4 MULDOON BRIDGE IN 14.0 8.0 8.5 10.1 11.2 15.3 17.6 19.1 MAUMEE RIVER FORT WAYNE IN 17.0 10.7 12.5 14.3 17.5 20.4 22.3 25.7 DEFIANCE OH 10.0 4.6 4.8 5.8 6.5 9.2 11.0 11.8 NAPOLEON OH 12.0 6.2 7.7 9.1 11.0 13.6 15.3 15.8 TIFFIN RIVER STRYKER OH 11.0 10.5 11.5 13.0 13.7 14.8 17.0 18.0 BLANCHARD RIVER OTTAWA OH 23.0 19.3 20.1 21.3 22.6 24.0 26.4 27.3 AUGLAIZE RIVER FORT JENNINGS OH 13.0 7.4 8.9 11.4 13.0 14.6 17.2 18.0 DEFIANCE OH 21.0 12.4 13.2 14.8 16.1 19.7 22.0 23.5 UPPER WABASH RIVER BASIN... LOCATION FS(FT) 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% WABASH RIVER LINN GROVE IN 11.0 10.4 11.1 11.9 13.2 14.3 15.2 15.4 BLUFFTON IN 10.0 7.4 8.6 9.7 10.9 12.3 13.8 14.4 WABASH IN 14.0 9.7 10.5 11.1 11.9 13.4 14.9 19.8 LOGANSPORT IN 15.0 8.1 8.3 8.6 9.2 10.2 11.4 12.8 TIPPECANOE RIVER ORA IN 12.0 11.0 11.0 11.7 12.7 13.3 14.4 14.7 WINAMAC IN 10.0 8.3 8.4 9.1 10.2 11.0 12.9 13.4 MISSISSINEWA RIVER MARION IN 12.0 5.1 5.5 6.5 7.6 9.1 10.8 11.8 SALAMONIE RIVER PORTLAND IN 11.0 6.9 7.3 8.0 8.7 10.1 14.3 21.2 WARREN IN 12.0 8.9 9.3 9.8 10.6 11.6 13.8 14.9 EEL RIVER N. MANCHESTER IN 11.0 7.7 8.9 10.1 11.7 13.1 15.2 16.3 THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER, SOIL MOISTURE, SNOW MELT AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILITIES, THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE A PART OF NOAA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICES ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE. ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATIONS ARE AVAILABLE ON AHPS AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX, UNDER RIVERS AND LAKES. ...SNOW COVER/SOIL CONDITIONS... A SERIES OF SYSTEMS OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS BROUGHT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA WITH A MAXIMUM OF 3 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER WABASH AND TIPPECANOE RIVER BASINS. THIS RAINFALL COUPLED WITH RAPID SNOWMELT HAS HIGHLY SATURATED OUR SOILS ACROSS THE BASINS. PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS WAS 150 TO 300 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR MID FEBRUARY. PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST 90-DAYS IN IN THE 100 TO 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THE LIQUID PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS WARMER TEMPERATURES (INTO THE 50S FOR SOME LOCATIONS) SINCE THE LAST ISSUANCE RAPIDLY MELTED SNOW COVER ACROSS THE BASIN. ANOTHER SYSTEM THIS WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE BASINS; HOWEVER ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWPACK WILL ONLY RESULT IN LOCALIZED IMPACTS AND NOT HAVE A WIDE-REACHING EFFECT ON FLOODING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS SEASON. FROST DEPTH HAS ALSO DIMINISHED ACROSS THE BASINS WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN 6 INCHES OF FROST PENETRATION. WHILE NEAR TERM FREEZE UP IS POSSIBLE, GRADUAL WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE START OF MARCH WILL HELP THAW ANY REMAINING FROST AND REMOVE IT AS A FACTOR FOR FLOODING MOVING FORWARD. ...WEATHER OUTLOOK... IN THE NEAR TERM, A SYSTEM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE BASINS TONIGHT. THE FORECAST SHOWS BETWEEN 2 TO 4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW WITH A LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF LESS THAN HALF OF AN INCH. THE PATTERN THEN SHIFTS TO A DRY AND GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK IS LEANING TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE CPC EXPERIMENTAL 3 TO 4 WEEK OUTLOOK IS LEANING TOWARDS EQUAL CHANGES FOR ABOVE, BELOW, AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE OFFICIAL 1 AND 3 MONTH OUTLOOKS FOR MARCH AND MARCH THROUGH MAY ALSO LEAN TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. ...RIVER CONDITIONS... STREAMFLOWS OVER THE PAST 7 DAYS SHOW THE UPPER WABASH AND MAUMEE RIVER BASINS AS ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. IN FACT, FLOODING IS ONGOING FOR PORTIONS OF THE TIPPECANOE, SAINT JOSEPH INDIANA/OHIO, AND TIFFIN RIVERS. THE RECENT RISES ON RIVERS ALSO SHIFTED ICE AND RESULTED IN ISOLATED ICE JAMS WITH MINOR IMPACTS. WHILE ICE MAY BE PRESENT ON SMALLER TRIBUTARIES, THE RECENT RISES ON RIVERS HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED AND REMOVED FUTURE ICE JAMS AS CONCERN FOR FLOODING. ...OVERALL FLOOD RISK... THE FLOOD RISK IS CONSIDERED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH THE MAUMEE AND WABASH RIVER BASINS. THIS MEANS MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING IS LIKELY. NORMAL RISK FOR FLOODING IS CONSIDERED NO MORE THAN MINOR FLOODING EVERY 1 TO 2 YEARS. THIS ABOVE NORMAL RISK IS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND CONVECTIVE RAINS OVER ALREADY SATURATED SOILS. ...FLOOD TERMINOLOGY... THE TERM MINOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE MINIMAL OR NO PROPERTY DAMAGE. HOWEVER, SOME PUBLIC INCONVENIENCE IS POSSIBLE. THE TERM MODERATE FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE THE INUNDATION OF SECONDARY ROADS. TRANSFER TO A HIGHER ELEVATION MAY BE NECESSARY TO SAVE PROPERTY. THE TERM MAJOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE EXTENSIVE INUNDATION AND PROPERTY DAMAGE, USUALLY CHARACTERIZED BY THE EVACUATION OF PEOPLE AND LIVESTOCK AND THE CLOSURE OF BOTH PRIMARY AND SECONDARY ROADS. THE NEXT LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY MARCH 10, 2022 FOR THE UPPER WABASH AND MAUMEE RIVER BASINS. $$
Related Images:
