{"id":112253,"date":"2022-02-24T12:00:26","date_gmt":"2022-02-24T17:00:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aroundfortwayne.com\/news\/?p=112253"},"modified":"2022-02-25T19:12:08","modified_gmt":"2022-02-26T00:12:08","slug":"nws-spring-st-joseph-river-hydrologic-outlook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/aroundfortwayne.com\/news\/2022\/02\/24\/nws-spring-st-joseph-river-hydrologic-outlook\/","title":{"rendered":"NWS: Spring St. Joseph River Hydrologic Outlook"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Spring<\/p>\n

The National Weather Service has issued the spring Hydrologic Outlook<\/strong> for the St. Joseph River.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Text of the outlook from the National Weather Service:<\/p>\n

\n
790 \r\nFGUS73 KIWX 241637\r\nESFIWX\r\n\r\nPROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA\r\n1137 AM EST THU FEB 24 2022\r\n\r\n\r\n... ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE 90 DAY PROBABILISTIC\r\nFORECAST...\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE 90 DAY PROBABILISTIC FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE\r\nKANKAKEE RIVER BASIN IN NORTHERN INDIANA AND FOR THE SAINT\r\nJOSEPH RIVER BASIN IN NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN.\r\n\r\nIN THE TABLE BELOW THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE\r\nCHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE TO OR ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN\r\nTHE NEXT 90 DAYS.\r\n\r\nFOR EXAMPLE, THE KANKAKEE RIVER AT DAVIS, INDIANA HAS A FLOOD STAGE \r\nOF 10 FEET. IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE THE \r\nRIVER WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE 10.8 FEET.\r\n\r\nTHE ST. JOSEPH RIVER AT SOUTH BEND, INDIANA HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF \r\n5.5 FEET. IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 25 PERCENT CHANCE THE \r\nRIVER WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE  6.4 FEET. \r\n\r\n\r\n CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS\r\n ...VALID FEBRUARY 24 2022 - MAY 30 2022... \r\n\r\nKANKAKEE RIVER BASIN...\r\nLOCATION         FS(FT)   95%  90%  75%  50%  25%  10%   5% \r\n\r\nKANKAKEE RIVER\r\nDAVIS IN            10    9.1  9.1  9.1  9.2 10.1 10.8 11.3  \r\n\r\n\r\nYELLOW RIVER\r\nPLYMOUTH IN         13    8.4  9.4 10.4 11.5 13.2 14.2 14.8  \r\nKNOX IN             10    7.3  7.3  7.5  7.8  8.3  9.3  9.5  \r\n\r\n\r\nSAINT JOSEPH RIVER MICHIGAN BASIN...\r\nLOCATION         FS(FT)   95%  90%  75%  50%  25%  10%   5% \r\n\r\nSAINT JOSEPH RIVER MICHIGAN\r\nTHREE RIVERS MI      7    6.7  6.7  6.7  7.0  7.7  8.3  9.4  \r\nMOTTVILLE MI         8    6.3  6.3  6.3  6.5  7.2  7.9  8.9  \r\nELKHART IN          24   22.6 22.6 22.6 23.0 24.1 25.4 26.3  \r\nSOUTH BEND IN      5.5    5.1  5.1  5.1  5.6  6.4  7.7  8.5  \r\nNILES MI            11    9.5  9.5  9.5 10.1 11.1 12.8 13.8   \r\n\r\n\r\nELKHART RIVER\r\nGOSHEN IN            7    4.9  5.1  5.6  6.1  7.4  8.6 10.8  \r\nCOSPERVILLE IN       6    6.0  6.0  6.0  6.3  6.7  7.4  8.1  \r\n\r\n\r\nTHIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT\r\nARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE\r\nYEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE\r\nRIVER, SOIL MOISTURE, SNOW MELT AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE\r\nOUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE\r\nRANGE OF PROBABILITIES, THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nLONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE\r\nPROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE A PART OF NOAA NATIONAL WEATHER\r\nSERVICES ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE.\r\n\r\nADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATIONS ARE AVAILABLE ON\r\nAHPS AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV\/IWX, UNDER RIVERS AND LAKES.\r\n\r\n...SNOW COVER\/SOIL CONDITIONS...\r\n\r\nA SERIES OF SYSTEMS OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS BROUGHT 1.5 TO 3 INCHES \r\nOF LIQUID PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA AND COUPLED WITH RAPID SNOWMELT \r\nTO SATURATE SOILS ACROSS THE SAINT JOESPH MICHIGAN\/INDIANA AND \r\nKANKAKEE RIVER BASINS. PRECIPITATION FROM THE PAST TWO WEEKS WAS \r\n150 TO 300 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR MID FEBRUARY. PRECIPITATION OVER \r\nTHE PAST 90-DAYS IS IN 110 TO 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. \r\n\r\nTHE LIQUID PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS WARMER TEMPERATURES (INTO THE \r\n50S FOR SOME LOCATIONS) SINCE THE LAST ISSUANCE RAPIDLY MELTED SNOW \r\nCOVER ACROSS THE BASIN. ANOTHER SYSTEM THIS WEEK IS EXPECTED TO \r\nBRING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE BASINS; HOWEVER ANY ADDITIONAL \r\nSNOWPACK WILL ONLY RESULT IN LOCALIZED IMPACTS AND NOT HAVE A WIDE-\r\nREACHING EFFECT ON FLOODING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS SEASON. \r\n\r\nFROST DEPTH HAS ALSO DIMINISHED ACROSS THE BASINS WITH GENERALLY \r\nLESS THAN 6 INCHES OF FROST PENETRATION. WHILE NEAR TERM FREEZE UP \r\nIS POSSIBLE, GRADUAL WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE START OF MARCH \r\nWILL HELP THAW ANY REMAINING FROST AND REMOVE IT AS A FACTOR FOR \r\nFLOODING MOVING FORWARD. \r\n\r\n\r\n...WEATHER OUTLOOK...\r\n\r\nIN THE NEAR TERM, A SYSTEM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE \r\nBASINS TONIGHT. THE FORECAST SHOWS BETWEEN 3 TO 4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW \r\nWITH A LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF LESS THAN HALF OF AN INCH. THE PATTERN \r\nTHEN SHIFTS TO A DRY AND GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE NEXT 7 \r\nDAYS. \r\n\r\nTHE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK IS LEANING \r\nTOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. \r\nTHE CPC EXPERIMENTAL 3 TO 4 WEEK OUTLOOK IS LEANING TOWARDS EQUAL \r\nCHANGES FOR ABOVE, BELOW, AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE \r\nNORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE OFFICIAL 1 AND 3 MONTH OUTLOOKS FOR MARCH \r\nAND MARCH THROUGH MAY ALSO LEAN TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES \r\nAND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.\r\n\r\n\r\n...RIVER CONDITIONS...\r\n\r\nSTREAMFLOWS OVER THE PAST 7 DAYS SHOW THE KANKAKEE AND SAINT JOSEPH \r\nMICHIGAN\/INDIANA RIVER BASINS AS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. WHILE MANY OF \r\nTHE RIVERS HAVE RETURNED WITHIN BANKS, ISOLATED FLOODING CONTINUES\r\nALONG THE SAINT JOSEPH MICHIGAN\/INDIANA AND ELKHART RIVER. \r\n\r\nTHE RECENT RISES ON RIVERS ALSO SHIFTED ICE AND RESULTED IN ISOLATED \r\nICE JAMS WITH MINOR IMPACTS. WHILE ICE MAY BE PRESENT ON SMALLER \r\nTRIBUTARIES, THE RECENT RISES ON RIVERS HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED AND \r\nREMOVED FUTURE ICE JAMS AS CONCERN FOR FLOODING.\r\n\r\n\r\n...OVERALL FLOOD RISK...\r\n\r\nTHE FLOOD RISK IS CONSIDERED NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MINOR \r\nRIVER FLOODING FOR THE SAINT JOSEPH MICHIGAN\/INDIANA AND KANKAKEE \r\nRIVER BASINS. NORMAL RISK FOR FLOODING IS CONSIDERED NO MORE THAN \r\nMINOR FLOODING EVER 1 TO 2 YEARS. WHILE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THIS \r\nSEASON WOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO FLOODING, THE SLIGHTLY DRIER DEEP \r\nSOILS SHOULD HELP TO PROVIDE SOME MITIGATION OF THE OVERALL FLOOD RISK. \r\n\r\n\r\n...FLOOD TERMINOLOGY...\r\nTHE TERM MINOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE MINIMAL OR NO PROPERTY\r\nDAMAGE. HOWEVER, SOME PUBLIC INCONVENIENCE IS POSSIBLE.\r\n\r\nTHE TERM MODERATE FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE THE INUNDATION OF \r\nSECONDARY ROADS. TRANSFER TO A HIGHER ELEVATION MAY BE NECESSARY TO\r\nSAVE PROPERTY.\r\n\r\nTHE TERM MAJOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE EXTENSIVE INUNDATION\r\nAND PROPERTY DAMAGE, USUALLY CHARACTERIZED BY THE EVACUATION OF \r\nPEOPLE AND LIVESTOCK AND THE CLOSURE OF BOTH PRIMARY AND SECONDARY \r\nROADS.\r\n\r\nTHE NEXT LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON \r\nTHURSDAY, MARCH 10 2022 FOR THE KANKAKEE AND SAINT JOSEPH RIVER \r\nBASINS.\r\n\r\n\r\n$$\r\n\r\nCM\/PBM<\/pre>\n<\/blockquote>\n
The latest National Weather Service weather story<\/a> | Official National Weather Service Northern Indiana website<\/a><\/p>\n
Related Images:<\/h3>
\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\n\t\t<\/a>\n\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
The National Weather Service has issued the spring Hydrologic Outlook for the St. Joseph River.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":65764,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[227,29593],"tags":[160,29595,23464,29594,229],"class_list":["post-112253","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-flood","category-nws-hydrologic-outlooks","tag-flood","tag-hyrdrologic-outlook","tag-national-weather-service-northern-indiana","tag-spring-hydrologic-outlook","tag-st-joseph-river"],"yoast_head":"\nNWS: Spring St. Joseph River Hydrologic Outlook - AroundFortWayne<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The National Weather Service has issued the spring Hydrologic Outlook for the St. Joseph River.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, 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