The National Weather Service has issued the spring Hydrologic Outlook for the St. Joseph River.
Text of the outlook from the National Weather Service:
790 FGUS73 KIWX 241637 ESFIWX PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 1137 AM EST THU FEB 24 2022 ... ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE 90 DAY PROBABILISTIC FORECAST... THIS IS THE 90 DAY PROBABILISTIC FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE KANKAKEE RIVER BASIN IN NORTHERN INDIANA AND FOR THE SAINT JOSEPH RIVER BASIN IN NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. IN THE TABLE BELOW THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE TO OR ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS. FOR EXAMPLE, THE KANKAKEE RIVER AT DAVIS, INDIANA HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 10 FEET. IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE THE RIVER WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE 10.8 FEET. THE ST. JOSEPH RIVER AT SOUTH BEND, INDIANA HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 5.5 FEET. IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 25 PERCENT CHANCE THE RIVER WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE 6.4 FEET. CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS ...VALID FEBRUARY 24 2022 - MAY 30 2022... KANKAKEE RIVER BASIN... LOCATION FS(FT) 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% KANKAKEE RIVER DAVIS IN 10 9.1 9.1 9.1 9.2 10.1 10.8 11.3 YELLOW RIVER PLYMOUTH IN 13 8.4 9.4 10.4 11.5 13.2 14.2 14.8 KNOX IN 10 7.3 7.3 7.5 7.8 8.3 9.3 9.5 SAINT JOSEPH RIVER MICHIGAN BASIN... LOCATION FS(FT) 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% SAINT JOSEPH RIVER MICHIGAN THREE RIVERS MI 7 6.7 6.7 6.7 7.0 7.7 8.3 9.4 MOTTVILLE MI 8 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.5 7.2 7.9 8.9 ELKHART IN 24 22.6 22.6 22.6 23.0 24.1 25.4 26.3 SOUTH BEND IN 5.5 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.6 6.4 7.7 8.5 NILES MI 11 9.5 9.5 9.5 10.1 11.1 12.8 13.8 ELKHART RIVER GOSHEN IN 7 4.9 5.1 5.6 6.1 7.4 8.6 10.8 COSPERVILLE IN 6 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.3 6.7 7.4 8.1 THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER, SOIL MOISTURE, SNOW MELT AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILITIES, THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE A PART OF NOAA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICES ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE. ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATIONS ARE AVAILABLE ON AHPS AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX, UNDER RIVERS AND LAKES. ...SNOW COVER/SOIL CONDITIONS... A SERIES OF SYSTEMS OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS BROUGHT 1.5 TO 3 INCHES OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA AND COUPLED WITH RAPID SNOWMELT TO SATURATE SOILS ACROSS THE SAINT JOESPH MICHIGAN/INDIANA AND KANKAKEE RIVER BASINS. PRECIPITATION FROM THE PAST TWO WEEKS WAS 150 TO 300 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR MID FEBRUARY. PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST 90-DAYS IS IN 110 TO 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THE LIQUID PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS WARMER TEMPERATURES (INTO THE 50S FOR SOME LOCATIONS) SINCE THE LAST ISSUANCE RAPIDLY MELTED SNOW COVER ACROSS THE BASIN. ANOTHER SYSTEM THIS WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE BASINS; HOWEVER ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWPACK WILL ONLY RESULT IN LOCALIZED IMPACTS AND NOT HAVE A WIDE- REACHING EFFECT ON FLOODING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS SEASON. FROST DEPTH HAS ALSO DIMINISHED ACROSS THE BASINS WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN 6 INCHES OF FROST PENETRATION. WHILE NEAR TERM FREEZE UP IS POSSIBLE, GRADUAL WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE START OF MARCH WILL HELP THAW ANY REMAINING FROST AND REMOVE IT AS A FACTOR FOR FLOODING MOVING FORWARD. ...WEATHER OUTLOOK... IN THE NEAR TERM, A SYSTEM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE BASINS TONIGHT. THE FORECAST SHOWS BETWEEN 3 TO 4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW WITH A LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF LESS THAN HALF OF AN INCH. THE PATTERN THEN SHIFTS TO A DRY AND GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK IS LEANING TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE CPC EXPERIMENTAL 3 TO 4 WEEK OUTLOOK IS LEANING TOWARDS EQUAL CHANGES FOR ABOVE, BELOW, AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE OFFICIAL 1 AND 3 MONTH OUTLOOKS FOR MARCH AND MARCH THROUGH MAY ALSO LEAN TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. ...RIVER CONDITIONS... STREAMFLOWS OVER THE PAST 7 DAYS SHOW THE KANKAKEE AND SAINT JOSEPH MICHIGAN/INDIANA RIVER BASINS AS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. WHILE MANY OF THE RIVERS HAVE RETURNED WITHIN BANKS, ISOLATED FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE SAINT JOSEPH MICHIGAN/INDIANA AND ELKHART RIVER. THE RECENT RISES ON RIVERS ALSO SHIFTED ICE AND RESULTED IN ISOLATED ICE JAMS WITH MINOR IMPACTS. WHILE ICE MAY BE PRESENT ON SMALLER TRIBUTARIES, THE RECENT RISES ON RIVERS HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED AND REMOVED FUTURE ICE JAMS AS CONCERN FOR FLOODING. ...OVERALL FLOOD RISK... THE FLOOD RISK IS CONSIDERED NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MINOR RIVER FLOODING FOR THE SAINT JOSEPH MICHIGAN/INDIANA AND KANKAKEE RIVER BASINS. NORMAL RISK FOR FLOODING IS CONSIDERED NO MORE THAN MINOR FLOODING EVER 1 TO 2 YEARS. WHILE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THIS SEASON WOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO FLOODING, THE SLIGHTLY DRIER DEEP SOILS SHOULD HELP TO PROVIDE SOME MITIGATION OF THE OVERALL FLOOD RISK. ...FLOOD TERMINOLOGY... THE TERM MINOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE MINIMAL OR NO PROPERTY DAMAGE. HOWEVER, SOME PUBLIC INCONVENIENCE IS POSSIBLE. THE TERM MODERATE FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE THE INUNDATION OF SECONDARY ROADS. TRANSFER TO A HIGHER ELEVATION MAY BE NECESSARY TO SAVE PROPERTY. THE TERM MAJOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE EXTENSIVE INUNDATION AND PROPERTY DAMAGE, USUALLY CHARACTERIZED BY THE EVACUATION OF PEOPLE AND LIVESTOCK AND THE CLOSURE OF BOTH PRIMARY AND SECONDARY ROADS. THE NEXT LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY, MARCH 10 2022 FOR THE KANKAKEE AND SAINT JOSEPH RIVER BASINS. $$ CM/PBM
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