Press release from the Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics, released yesterday:
The Tea Party Movement in Indiana
Tea Party Statewide
When Indiana likely voters were asked if they had a favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of the tea party movement, 48% chose favorable. This is up from 42% in April of this year. In October 26% had an unfavorable opinion (23% in April) and 17% had a neutral opinion (20% in April). Not surprisingly, Republicans had a more favorable view of the tea party movement than Democrats. What might be most telling about this election is that the tea party movement is viewed favorably by 42% of the likely voters who identified themselves as independents. This is virtually the same as what was found in April of this year (45%).
A higher percentage of males than females viewed the tea party movement favorably (55% of males; 41% of females). The age category with the highest support was 35-49 (52%). Fifty-eight percent of the respondents who attend religious services weekly viewed the tea party movement favorably. No other category for this variable exceeded 45%.
All of the respondents also were asked if they identify with the tea party movement. This question was designed to get at a deeper commitment to the tea party movement than the question discussed above. In this case, 39% said they identified with the tea party movement. This is up from 27% in April. Forty-seven percent of the respondents do not identify with the tea party movement (48% in April) and 15% are unsure (25% in April).
A higher percentage of males than females identify with the tea party movement (43% of males; 34% of females). The age category with the highest support was 35-49 (42%). Forty-five percent of the respondents who attend religious services weekly identified with the tea party movement. No other category for this variable exceeded 36%.
Nearly half of the respondents who do not identify with the tea party movement think that the economy is the most important issue facing the United States (47%), while only 35% of the respondents who identify with the tea party movement believe this to be the case. Both groups’ second most frequently mentioned issue is the moral direction of the country, but tea party identifiers selected it over twice as often as non-tea party identifiers (27% to 13%). This is a somewhat surprising result since the national debt has been a primary issue highlighted by the tea party movement at rallies and by its leaders. Twenty-one percent of tea party identifiers say that the national debt is the most important issue and only 11% of non-tea party identifiers think the national debt is the most important issue.
In the race for US Senate, Republican Dan Coats is pulling the support of 82% of the respondents who view the tea party movement favorably and 82% of the respondents who identify with the tea party movement. Democrat Brad Ellsworth is pulling the support of 83% of those who view the tea party movement unfavorably. Ellsworth also is winning among those who do not identify with the tea party movement, but by a smaller percentage (57% to 31%).
In the race for Indiana Secretary of State, Republican Charlie White is pulling the support of 81% of the respondents who view the tea party movement favorably and 80% of the respondents who identify with the tea party movement. Democrat Vop Osili is pulling the support of 81% of the respondents who view the tea party movement unfavorably. Osili is winning among those who do not identify with the tea party movement, but by a smaller percentage (57% to 29%).
It is not surprising that those who view the tea party movement favorably say they will support the amendment to the Indiana Constitution to cap property taxes. Sixty-seven percent of those who view the tea party movement favorably support the constitutional amendment. That number jumps to 70% among those who identify with the tea party movement.
Third District
The tea party movement is viewed more favorably in the third district than throughout the state. Fifty-two percent of the respondents said they have a favorable view of the tea party movement. This is an increase from April when only 41% had a favorable view. In October 25% of the likely voters had an unfavorable view of the tea party movement and 15% were neutral. In April 21% had an unfavorable view of the tea party movement and 23% had a neutral view. This seems to indicate that likely voters in the third district have moved from neutral views primarily to a favorable view.
When the third district respondents were asked if they identify with the tea party movement, 39% said they did while 45% did not and 16% were not sure. This once again is a dramatic shift from April when only 28% of the respondents identified with the tea party movement, 46% did not, and 26% were unsure.
In the race for Indiana’s third congressional district, Republican Marlin Stutzman is pulling the support of 85% of the respondents who view the tea party movement favorably and 86% of the respondents who identify with the tea party movement. Democrat Tom Hayhurst is pulling 80% of the respondents who have an unfavorable view of the tea party movement and is winning among the respondents who do not identify with the tea party movement (63% to 27%).
Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics
The Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics is a non-partisan organization that helps the people of Indiana understand the role of politics and government in their daily lives. By doing this, The Mike Downs Center hopes to encourage participation in political and public processes the same way its namesake Dr. Michael C. Downs did for more than 34 years. The Mike Downs Center is located on the campus of Indiana University-Purdue University Fort Wayne (IPFW).Statement of Methodology for Statewide Indiana Survey: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,335 registered voters 10/21/10 through 10/25/10, using Registration Based Sample (RBS) from Aristotle in Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 1,600 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already voted, or to be likely to vote in the 11/02/10 midterm election. Where necessary, responses were weighted according to the voter registration database. In theory, with the stated sample size, one can say with 95% certainty that the results would not vary by more than the stated margin of sampling error, in one direction or the other, had the entire universe of respondents been interviewed with complete accuracy. There are other possible sources of error in all surveys that may be more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. These include refusals to be interviewed, question wording and question order, weighting by demographic control data and the manner in which respondents are filtered (such as, determining who is a likely voter). It is difficult to quantify the errors that may result from these factors. Fieldwork for this survey was done by SurveyUSA of Clifton, NJ
Statement of Methodology for U.S. House 3rd District of Indiana: SurveyUSA interviewed 565 registered voters from Indiana’s 3rd Congressional District 10/21/10 through 10/25/10, using Registration Based Sample (RBS) from Aristotle in Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 400 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already voted, or to be likely to vote in the 11/02/10 midterm election. Where necessary, responses were weighted according to the voter registration database. In theory, with the stated sample size, one can say with 95% certainty that the results would not vary by more than the stated margin of sampling error, in one direction or the other, had the entire universe of respondents been interviewed with complete accuracy. There are other possible sources of error in all surveys that may be more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. These include refusals to be interviewed, question wording and question order, weighting by demographic control data and the manner in which respondents are filtered (such as, determining who is a likely voter). It is difficult to quantify the errors that may result from these factors. Fieldwork for this survey was done by SurveyUSA of Clifton, NJ
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